Nassau Global PV Module Prices

International PV module prices, driven by Chinese averages, will likely rise from $0.08/W to $0.10/W today to $0.11/W by the end of 2025 and potentially $0.13/W by 2027, says Clean Energy Associates (CEA), noting that heterojunction and back-contact technologies now make up 12% of global module capacity.

That calculates to $4.84 trillion per year between 2024 and 2030, $6.5 annually in the following decade, and $7.5 trillion each year from 2041-2050. At the onset of 2024, investors were faced with a massive oversupply of PV modules, which would send prices plummeting throughout the year.

This move occurred right before TOPCon modules originating in China hit the world market at $0.095/W FOB. U.S. tariffs preserved an average TOPCon price of $0.290/W DDP (range: $0.220-$0.330/W). In September, analysts revised their year-end outlooks for PV installations in response to falling prices.

Bloomberg reported global installations for the year would be 592 GW, up 33% from 2023. Lower prices had opened new markets, and growth increased in India and Pakistan. But Bloomberg warned that competition in module manufacturing remained high and most players would report losses for FY 2024.

CEA has predicted that solar module prices may increase from around $0.8/W to $10/W currently to $0.11/W by the end of 2025 and likely up to $0.13/W by 2027.

Each company reported a recycling volume ranging from 1,000 tons per year to 50,000+ tons per year. By August, module prices in Europe dropped to €0.113/Wp for mono n-type and €0.116/Wp for bifacial n-type products. But p-type modules increased by 11% to €0.114/Wp because of a demand surge in anticipation of their discontinuation.